Tichaona Zindoga: Political Editor
There is a flurry of political activity being undertaken by Zimbabwe’s opposition at the moment. Various personages, acting alone – as in one Evan Mawarire – or in concert with others, such as the so-called National Electoral Reform Agenda (NERA) comprising 18 parties, have been putting up all manner of shows in an effort to “put pressure” on the ruling Zanu-PF party.It’s not just traditional, democratic “pressure”. Attempts have been made to foment anarchy and upend the constitutional order in the country in the hope of regime change.
It is not in question that the various actions, whether by the said individuals and lone star activists or the syndicated actions lately under the name of NERA, have received a generous amount of media coverage both locally and internationally.
It is also not in question that the countries in the West that have traditionally supported and funded the opposition have lately been roused (or is it a case of the tail wagging the dog?)
Now, in all this, it remains to be seen whether the opposition can be able to attain regime change via the current efforts.
A good answer to this is that, for all the little dramas and histrionics, nothing will come out of it.
It’s just a silly season with a lot of actors who are following a shallow script.
If the showdown that Evan Mawarire wanted to stage at the United Nations General Assembly a couple of days ago to embarrass President Mugabe and bring Zimbabwe into global spotlight was supposed to be the climax of these recent histrionics, then one cannot help a sense of disappointment.
Mawarire, joined by another social media warrior Patson Dzamara all on the ticket of the good Americans, to rally 5 000 people for a mega demonstration dubbed #ShutDownUN, ended up gathering a measly 19 people.
Not only that, he had to leave the venue of his planned protest with his tail stuck between his legs as he was confronted by hundreds of pro-Zimbabwe, pro-Mugabe activists.
It was all so comically anti-climactic.
But that it is also symbolic.
It will be instructive to note that all the hullaballoo around Zimbabwe over the past couple of months has its origins and agency on social media, standing on the clay feet of hashtags.
The spectacular collapse of #ShutDownUN – or non-vent thereof – is something that has played over as before as Mawarire, who sought to pilfer the glory of a civil servants’ strike in July, has had his own calls ignored.
It’s something that his fans find hard to swallow but the fact is Mawarire is nothing on his own.
Moreso, social media which some quarters appear to believe is so critical is not as powerful as its self-deluded proponents are wont to believe.
But a pattern begins to emerge.
While on one hand Mawarire represents a particular social media-driven demography and political phenomenon, those behind regime change still have the traditional political organisations now to be convened under NERA as a tentative coalition and dry run for a formal convention before 2018.
The aim and strategy for now is to gather all outfits of the opposition under the banner of campaigning for the reform of electoral laws.
The people are essentially united in the belief – and reality – that the opposition cannot defeat Zanu-PF in an election and the excuse is that it is the laws that have the problem.
The tacit admission, though, is that Zanu-PF will have numbers to muster come 2018.
There is one story in a recent NewsDay issue that speaks to this fear, albeit hiding behind the finger.
The story is titled, “Zanu-PF ‘tinkers’ with 2018 voters’ roll”.
The story charges the ruling party “has reportedly set in motion an elaborate plot to influence the structure of the 2018 national voters’ roll and eventually rig the polls”.
The paper then cites a source as saying: “(Political Commissar Saviour) Kasukuwere and (Secretary for Technology Jonathan) Moyo presented a plan that will see Zanu-PF go on a massive membership registration exercise to create an electronic database.
This database will then be used as a template for the national voters’ roll that is to be used in the 2018 elections. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) will structure its roll around the party’s membership register. The Politburo agreed to this and that is why the President was happy with Kasu- kuwere.”
The claim that a party going on a massive voter registration of its members ahead of a watershed election is in the process of rigging that election is pure nonsense.
Significantly though, it reveals a fear in the opposition that it will not match the mobilising power of Zanu-PF.
There have been other fatuous claims.
In February, Renewal Democrats of Zimbabwe (RDZ) president Elton Mangoma reportedly said his party would not tolerate the Biometric Voting System (BVS) saying it “will pave way for Zanu- PF and the Rita Makarau-led Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to rig the 2018 elections”.
The opposition has, in fact, been calling for that very same system and some civic society groups actually welcomed the technology.
However, in the wisdom, or lack thereof, of Mangoma, the new system is unwelcome.
“A computer system can be manipulated and we have very few people with the skills to detect such manipulation. This will be giving Zanu-PF and ZEC a free hand to rig with the permission of the political parties.
“ZANU-PF and ZEC control the passwords and they can alter that at any time. These are the very people whom Zimbabweans do not trust. Remember whoever has the authority to add a voter’s data, can change or delete it and none of us can ever detect it.”
The opposition has also made incredible claims about how this new technology can be used to track and intimidate people based on how they would have voted.
They are the same people who once talked about mutating ballots, of course.
In January one newspaper quoted Obert Gutu complaining about voter registration that had been conducted in 2015, especially where there had been by-elections.
He said: “… the MDC strongly suspects that the afore-mentioned voter registration was conducted in a very sinister and shadowy manner that betrays the intention of the Zanu-PF regime to rig the 2018 general election”.
The self-evident truth is that the opposition not only fears the mobilisation capacity of the ruling party, especially in the event of elections, but is also afraid of being dumped, for the umpteenth time by the same machine.
Understandably, the opposition has two ways to deal with this unpleasant prospect: they seek to run away from the elections or if they participate and blame the results on alleged rigging, which miraculously takes place before the actual polls.